On the Power of Cumulative Advantage

“[I]f one object happens to be slightly more popular than another at just the right point, it will tend to become more popular still. As a result, even tiny, random fluctuations can blow up, generating potentially enormous long-run differences” Duncan J. Watts, New York Times

There are many cases where the above quote is evident. Sometimes the initial differences are based on chance, at other times the initial differences can be based on differences in natural talent, work ethic or good timing. Whatever the root cause is, cumulative advantage is a powerful force and it is important to find a way to break into this virtuous cycle.

In sports, athletes that start out slightly better that their teammates when they are young are given more coaching attention, more play time and are able to play in more competitive leagues. Overtime, these initial advantages, whether they are based on fortuitous birth-dates or differences in natural ability, grow and can make the difference of whether one athlete can make the pros or not. If an athlete can make it to the pros, the Matthew Effect still applies, the players that excel initially, get the most coaching attention and playing time leading to longer careers. Similar initial differences can explain who becomes the next pop star and who remains in obscurity.

Similarly, in entrepreneurship small initial differences are very powerful. In winner take most and businesses with network effects, a small initial advantage can lead to large differences in outcome over time. Being the front runner in a market can help a company sign BizDev deals, attract top talent (both employees and investors) and make users sign up for your service instead of a competitors. With this information in mind, it makes sense to work hard and take action now. If you can “see where the puck is going” and work hard to get there, you can have a good shot of getting an early lead and being able to harness the power of cumulative advantage going forward.